Is 80-10-10 financing dead?
Can PMI be avoided?
Appraisals killing deals in many markets
To truly understand if any type of bailout can work or not, one has to understand the loan process. Loan process then, when the market was hot, and the loan process now. Today's loan process and parameters scoff at the bailout idea.
Take situation in the market place until mid 2007. I am not telling anything that you have not heard; however, keep reading as I shade more light on the market place. One could buy a home with zero down payment. Many of the homebuyers we have helped with came in with 5-20% down payment. Loans were easy then. Now you can get loans up to 80% of the DECLINED home value. Here is an example...
Homeowner who bought a home for $600,000 in the boom times wants to refinance. Her home has dropped in value to $500,000. If the home owner paid 5%, 10%, 15%, or 20% down, she has to come up with cash of $170K, $140K, $110K or $80K to be able to finance in today's mortgage environment. The new loans limit loan to value ratio to 80%. This was first fall out from the Hope Now program.
Then came the FHA loans. These loans were available always, just got more visibility in this crisis. With FHA you can refinance up to 95% of new home value (and up to 96.5% for loans under $417K). Continuing the same example above, even under FHA refinance to work, additional cash of $85K, $65K, $35K or $5K is required from homeowner. Also FHA loans have upfront 1.75% insurance premium. However, this gets absorbed in the loan amount. Call for details.
So FHA loans helped compared to original HOPE NOW program. However they are not sufficient to bailout the bay area.
With Fannie and Freddie under its arms, the government realized that lower interest rates might spur the home buying, just like it did it in the boom times. Now the rates are hovering just about 5%. These rates are available for loan amounts up to $417K. Rate for higher loans, now called, conforming jumbo or high balance conforming, are anywhere from 5.5% to 7% depending on the lender. So the question is how does this play out in the home buying process and does this level of bail out help us in the bay area?
Well, with 20% down payment requirements, and to take advantage of the lower interest rates, one can buy a home not more than $521,250 (80% loan at or under $417K). How many homes in the bay area are under $500K that buyers really want to buy? Majority of the homebuyers making over $100K a year are looking into homes priced at or above $600K. Also, buyers are reluctant to put their cash for purchase in declining housing market environment (this is true even for low rate refinance).
When the rates were this low in the boom time and interest only loans were available, one could qualify for 7 times their income. A person making $100K could buy a $700K home with almost no money down. Today, interest only loans are unavailable under the similar terms as they were during the boom. Today, person with $100K income qualifies for 5 time their income to $500K and needs over 100K down to buy a home. This means with lowered interest rates, for one to qualify for a home that is declined in value still needs over 100K down and much lower home price than the boom time.
Bottom line in all this analysis is parameter called affordability. Loan programs made home buying affordable during boom. Any effort made in the credit-crunched environment with stringent loan requirements is not going to reach level of affordability achieved few years ago. So I call it a bubble.. not a housing bubble rather an affordability bubble… that caused greed to set in to get a home of one's dream.
Going forward the recovery will be slow. Job losses are going to impact the housing market. In my opinion, it's going to be 2012 or later before we see any level of housing boom.
(If you are planning to buy or sell a home, do attend our 45-minute one-on-one presentation... This will help you make an informed decision. Amit can be reached at 510-364-6686
Short Sale simply defined means you are selling a home below what is owned on it. Say you have a loan of $500,000 on a home that is now worth $400,000, then if you sell it at $350,000 (someone wanted a deal, right?) with lender approval, lender was SHORT of the amount owed and it is a short sale.
How does a seller typically arrive at a short sale decision? First of all in most cases, seller is unable to pay the mortgage due to life changing situations like, job loss, divorce, backruptsy etc. The lender issues a Notice of Default (NOD) to the property owner. At this point seller has few options: Negotiate with lender on payment delays or reduced payments (like loan modification we discussed last month), become current on the payments and remove the NOD, or sell the property to cure NOD. However, if sell of property involves reduced market price then a short sale situation arises. This sale MUST be approved by all creditors to have a clean break from the property. Any creditor not apprving a short sale, may recover their money by other means.
By all creditors I mean, all lien holders on the property. They usually are, the county assessors office, first lender, second lender, HOA liens, and any other recorded liens on the property. County Assessors office always has priority and it usually never gets negotiated. First lender is next in line and they can negotiate so the sencod lender, HOA dues and other lien holders. To find out list of all liens on the property, one can research the county recorder's office or get a preliminary title report from a title company for a fee. If your home is already with a Realtor for sale, this typically is obtained in the process.
Depending on the market value of the property these liens may or may not get paid.
Let's continue with our previous example...Assume all loans are obtained at the time of purchase.
Total Loan on Property $500,000
Amount of first loan: $350,000
Amount of Second Loan: $150,000
Sale price of property $400,000
Costs and Commissions:
HOA dues deliquency $1200
Property tax deliquency $3000
Misc Closing costs $6000
Real Estae Commissions: $25000
Total Costs and Commissions: $35,200
Net after all costs and commissions: $364,800.
At this point the first lender gets $350,000, second lender if agrees to settle for $14,800 gets that amount and the short sale gets consumed. If there was loan deliquency on the first worth $14000, then the second lender may get just $800. It is also possible that first lender may take a loss to have the second lender approve the sale and recover majority of the first loan.
This process may take any where from 3 to 6 months. Note that the Mortgae Relief act of 2007 (see FAQ in IRS website) allows for all purchase money loan forgiveness to be NON Taxable until end of 2009.
It is important to price the property right, lender will do their own appraisals and broker price opinions and they all have to fall in place. Afterall the lender has to answer to their investors in accepting a particular price. If you offer too low, your offer may get rejected. Also, by the time the lender accepts your offer and market prices have fallen, you may choose to back out. Make sure your contracts are written properly to accomodate various possibilities and to make your deposit secure.
If you have refinanced your original loan, or taken a second loan or equity line, it may not be forgiven under the Mortgage Rellief act of 2007. Please contact your tax professional for your specific situation. Any loan or debt not forgiven the debter may come for collection later in time as allowed by the law. If you or someone you know is in a situation where short sale can be an option feel free to contact me. (Amit 510-364-6686).
I have received quite a few phone calls for the new buzz word circulated among the home owners.. Loan Modification. So I decided to blog it and answer some common questions once in for all.
Why fix if it ain't broken and prioritization, are the two major rules for loan modification. First of all, it is against the California law to charge upfront fees for loan modification process unless prior approval is obtained from Department of Real Estate. So anyone calling you to have your loan modified for a fee, beware.
Recently issued DRE commissioners report indicates that: "Unscrupulous operators comb the public records to obtain information on the properties against which a notice of default (NOD) has been filed. These operators then contact the borrowers with promises of rescue in exchange for an advance fee. Often, the advance fee is collected by credit card and ranges from several hundred dollars to several thousand dollars. To induce the borrower to pay the fee, scammers tell the borrower they have expertise and connections that ensure a loan modification can be negotiated with the borrower's lender to permanantly reduce the payments to sustainable levels. However, once the money is collected, no work is performed and the victim loses their home to foreclosure."
This does not mean that there are no legitimate businesses that engage in foreclosure consulting and, in fact, collet perfectly legal advance fees. Real estate broker providing such service must get the advanced fee agreement approved by the department of real estate. All advance fees are held into broker's trust account until specific services are performed. However, once NOD is filed Foreclosure Consultant law (civil code 2945 et seq.) precludes from collecting advance fees.
So assuming you do find a legitimate loan modification provider, there are no guarantees that you will get the results. As everyone knows the number of borrowers defaulting on their mortgage payments has skyrocketed in recent months. This in itself has clogged the service providers bandwidth. So your lender when he looks at your case, looks at how long before your home forecloses. If you are close to getting foreclosed, your case is looked at immediately than if you just received a notice of default. If you are current on your payments and struggling to make them, tough luck. You cannot get a benefit of loan modification unless you are ready to let go your credit worthiness. This loan modification process, is a simple result of prioritization which lenders must do in order to work within their aleady streched resources. Logic is, why fix if it ain't broken?
If you need specific advice on your situation, call me. No guarantees, however, there is a posiibility of refinance by negotiating the payoff from the current lender(s), assuming you qualify irrespective of the property value.
Look out for my next month's blog: "Short sales and how to benefit from it?"
Remember the days of the dotcom? Number of foreign workers coming to the bay area for the prospects of better jobs and lifestyle. Well, as you may find out they may just be fueling the home prices in good school disctricts. Well, you heard it here first!
The young, early to late twenties H1B inflow during the days of dotcom is settling down as their green cards are arriving and they feel confident about purchasing their first home. Most of their kids are of school going age and we are seeing better schools as the primary requirement for home purchase. Even though bay area saw surge of home inventories in past 6-9 months, the inventories in the areas like Cupertino, Fremont Mission District, Warm Springs, Parkmont and Ardenwood-Forest park are have been low. Not only the sales in these area are strong but we are witnessing upward trend in prices of homes in this area. Many of the first time home buyers are also focusing in on the San Ramon area where the schools have achieved outstanding results.
One of the major questions first time home buyers focusing on good schools have is: Should we send our kids to Private Schools or Public Schools? Assuming the output in top-most public schools is comparable to the private schools, it always makes sense to pay a premium for the homes in the good public school areas. The tution money paid towards the private schools can be used towards the homes near good public schools and one can participate in future appreciation of real estate with that extra investment. Well, that said, all you have to pray for is redistricting of school boundaries does not affect your home location. But then again, wouldn't you make investment based on what you know today? Also, remember, teh private schools primarily focus on elementary education and you will still move again for middle and high school.
Call us get free copies of detailed school reports for the neighborhood od your choice.
Bay area real estate has doubled in value historically every 10 yrs. Is it our weather or our population and just the supply of land? It is all that and some more. California is the 7th largest economy in the world (the ranking keeps changing, however we are ranked in the single digit). Majority of the GDP driven by the bay are with population of about 8 million people.
We saw last year, all the news media trying to apply the US housing trends to the bay area, scaring the buyers and sellers alike. What really happened? Many buyers stayed on the sideline and did not buy, many sellers came on the market and waited for the buyers.. This standoff was finally over as the 2007 began. Sideline buyers came out in fears of rising interest rates or the lure of lowered interest rates from June 2006 by almost a full percentage. This translated into multiple offers.. but wait, not necessarily above asking. Properties closed at prices very close to asking or at asking. Good properties went above asking and the bay area came back to life.
So when is the best time to buy? NOW. I say that because you can only make decisions based on what you know today. Tomorrow rates may go up, and a half point increase may reduce your qualification by 10% of the properties you are so picky to choose. Imagine liking something then below your original search price. If the rates drop, just refinance if it makes sense. Just to recap the last two years, when the rates went down, more affordability caused the prices to jump with increased demand. When rates went up from 4.5% to 6.5%, that is approx 40% jump in the rates.. your loan qualification affected by almost the same amount downward..and the home prices did not even move downward by 10%.. So make your decisions today based on what you know today. Its all about your cash flow and price of the home by few perccentage may get washed in the long run. Open doors as the opportunity knocks.
California Department of Real Estate. California Real Estate Broker. License Number: 01430318. Main Office: 630 VeranoTerrace, Fremont, CA 94539
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